Additional data and references underpinning this manifesto

1. Rates of deforestation and conversion are extremely high
A serious and consistent conversion process is taking place in the Cerrado. Even during successive droughts and crop shortfalls, the rates of conversion in the Matopiba region remained high, as demonstrated for the period between 2013  and 2015 (INPE & FUNCATE, 2017). In addition, the 10 municipalities with the highest deforestation rates in the Cerrado are located in Matopiba.

2. Territorial expansion and land conversion in Matopiba are uncontrolled
Studies predict the conversion of 6.6 million hectares of land with low productive capacity and a high risk of desertification (Carneiro Filho & Costa, 2016).

3. The rates of deforestation and conversion could increase in 2017 due to:

• Increased rainfall after five years of drought, leading to a record soy harvest in 2017 (CONAB, 2017).
• Capitalization of producers because of their harvests, increasing their capacity to invest in the expansion of their production into areas of native vegetation.
• Potential approval of laws on foreign land ownership, further intensifying the strong real estate speculation market in the region (six bills included in PL 2289/2007, House of Representatives, 2017a).
• Potential approval of laws regarding new regulations for the licensing of agricultural production, making procedures more flexible and facilitating land conversion (19 bills included in PL 3729/2004, House of Representatives, 2017b).

4. The expansion of production should only occur in previously cleared areas
The 40 million hectares mentioned in this manifesto (Carneiro Filho & Costa, 2016) are enough for Brazil to meet the goals of soy production expansion over the next 50 years. The soy sector already knows how to expand into previously cleared areas, as this is standard practice in regions other than Matopiba, such as the Amazon biome and other areas of the Cerrado.

5. The law does not go far enough
The law still allows for the legal deforestation and conversion of 40 million hectares of the Cerrado. Soy production expanded by over 250% in Matopiba between 2000 and 2014 (Agrossatélite, 2015), mainly through the conversion of native vegetation, which accounted for 62% of this expansion (Carneiro Filho & Costa, 2016). Much of this took place in compliance with the legal provisions of the Forest Code.

6. Cattle-raising activities need to incorporate more technology and free up more land
Modest improvements to cattle-raising production standards using existing techniques and consolidated technology can increase productivity while freeing up land for crops, without affecting national production (Strassburg et al., 2014).

7. Logistical infrastructure projects may further stimulate expansion
Expansion of the logistical infrastructure of Matopiba will further stimulate speculative deforestation and conversion. A range of projects for future ports, highways, railways, and waterways are being planned or being implemented in the region (PDA, 2015).

8. Carbon emissions in the Cerrado will accelerate climate change
The Cerrado stores substantial amounts of carbon, equivalent to approximately 13.7 billion tons of CO2 (CEPF, 2016). The percentage of biomass below soil can reach 70%. Considering the total biomass stored in the distinct Cerrado ecosystems, the average density of carbon is equivalent to 137.3 tons of CO2 per hectare (CEPF, 2016). This carbon density is close to that for some areas of the Amazon. Therefore, conversion in the Cerrado is a significant problem for the planet and will compromise the commitments made by Brazil as part of the UN’s Climate Change Convention.

9. Agricultural expansion may aggravate the water crisis
The Cerrado is home to the sources of eight of Brazil’s 12 hydrographic regions, including the Amazon/Tocantins, São Francisco and Prata river basins, as well as three large aquifers: Guarani, Bambuí and Urucuia (CEPF, 2016). Studies show that rivers decreased their flow after the conversion of native areas into plantations and grazing land (TNC, 2016). Moreover, in 2017, Brazil’s National Water Agency (ANA) recorded the lowest flow rate for the São Francisco River in at least 70 years (ANA, 2017).

10. Unique ecosystems and biodiversity could be lost
The Cerrado is home to a third of Brazil’s biodiversity, with 44% of plants endemic to the region (Klink & Machado, 2005). It is the world’s most biodiverse savannah (MMA, 2017). The loss of biodiversity poses risks to not only the species and ecosystems that make up the biome but also to local populations that depend on these natural resources to survive.

11. There is a lack of state presence in the Matopiba region
Institutions are weak across almost all sectors, and often do not have the ability to prevent rights violations associated with land grabbing, the eviction of local communities, water contamination, and other crimes (field data*).

​12. The social risks and vulnerability of local communities in Matopiba are significant (field data*):

• The possession of land titles is not common, and local communities often settled in Legal Reserves and Areas of Permanent Protection long before the beginning of agribusiness activities.
• One of the results of agribusiness expansion is an exodus from rural areas, with many families and small farmers displaced from their properties by land grabbers.
• Conflicts have arisen between local communities and soybean farmers and companies as a result of agrochemical drift over communal areas, contamination and reduction of river flow, reduction of natural resources and fish stocks.
• Some cities are experiencing a crisis in public health services, education, and sanitation due to the expansion of urban areas. There is a large influx of people from other regions who are attracted by the promise of work and improved living standards.

* Note on Field Data in 11 and 12: Data collected in the field during a scientific expedition in September 2016 to the states of Matopiba. The following organisations took part in the expedition: the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM), the Brazilian Institute of Agricultural and Forest Management and Certification (IMAFLORA), the World Wildlife Foundation (WWF-Brasil), the Earth Innovation Institute (EII), and The Nature Conservancy (TNC).
 
13. Fighting poverty
The agricultural expansion should occur exclusively in previously cleared areas, allowing local communities and people living in areas of native vegetation to keep their livelihoods and guaranteeing the maintenance of environmental services.  In areas that already have been deforested and are degraded, poverty should be addressed by adopting best production practices, restoring native vegetation, and potentially substituting pastures for crops or other activities with a higher financial return.

14. The figures reflect the seriousness of the situation (Strassburg et al., 2017)
If the destruction of the Cerrado continues at the rate observed for the period 2003-2013, by 2050 we can expect the following:

• Unprecedented extinction of around 480 species of plants – over three times the documented extinctions since 1500.
• The release of 8.5 petagrams CO2 equivalent – corresponding to 22 years of emissions from Argentina (the world’s  17th largest emitter).
• Clearance of 31-34% of the remaining Cerrado.
• Changes to the functioning of the biome as a whole, undermining its ability to offer essential environmental services to local populations and to the agribusiness itself.

 
15. Official data on Cerrado conversion will be available annually
One of the private sector’s arguments for failing to monitor the supply chains is the lack of geospatial data on Cerrado conversion. The Ministry of Environment (MMA) has already published the official data up to 2015 (INPE & Funcarte, 2017) and has stated that monitoring of this area will now take place annually, as is already the case for the Amazon. In  addiction, according to the MMA, data on deforestation and conversion that took place between 2015 and 2017 will be published in 2017. The lack official information is no longer a problem.